Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1236 (N15W76) produced a B4 flare at 25/1020Z. Region 1236 decayed to an Hsx group with an alpha magnetic configuration, Region 1240 (S20W26) decayed to an Axx group with an alpha magnetic configuration, and Region 1241 (N18W19) decayed to a Bxo group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations of solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated speeds remained elevated between 540 - 634 km/s, as the coronal hole speed stream persists. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (26 - 28 June).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jun 094
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  094/092/092
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  006/007-006/007-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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