Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant flares were observed. Region 1236 (N16W92) is rotating off the west limb today. Region 1241 (N18W32) remained a Bxo-beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period at high latitudes. Observations of solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated speeds ranged from 595 km/s to 486 km/s, as the coronal hole high speed stream began to gradually subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 - 28 June). Quiet levels are expected on day three (29 June).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 090
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  088/086/086
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  005/006-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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