Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Regions 1254 (S24W28) and 1259 (N25E32) remained present on the disk but were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (22-24 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled for the majority of the period, before decreasing to quiet conditions as Bz turned primarily north. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for days 1-2 (22-23 July), then decreasing to mostly quiet on day 3 (24 July) as coronal hole effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 096
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  096/095/095
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  012/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm30%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%20%
Minor storm40%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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