Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1313 (S15W13) remains the most magnetically complex
region, but has failed to produce any notable activity. Early in
the period, two new regions rotated onto the visible disk, around
the southeast limb, and were numbered as Region 1316 (S12E56) and
Region 1317 (S26E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (12-14 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft
did show an increase from 320 km/s to around 410 km/s during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (12-14
October).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 130 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 11% |
All times in UTC
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