Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 November 2011

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 26 2220 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353 (N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z, was also associated with this event. The other regions on the disk remained mostly stable and quiet throughout the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next three days (27-29 November).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event, thus far, was 54 pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in progress when this report was issued.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27 November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29 November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective early on day two, and the arrival of todays full halo CME late on day two or early on day three.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov

Class M	10%	10%	10%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	90%	10%	01%
PCAF	in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       26 Nov 133
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  006/008-011/012-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	39%	40%
Minor storm	03%	17%	20%
Major-severe storm	00%	01%	02%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	11%	10%
Minor storm	15%	27%	26%
Major-severe storm	08%	58%	61%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.15nT), the direction is North (9.94nT).

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