Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Regions 1386 (S18E22) and 1387 (S21W57) both have produced
multiple C-class events, with the largest being a C8/1f at 27/0422Z
from Region 1386. Associated with this event, was a non Earth
directed CME. Both Regions continue to grow and evolve as they
rotate across the disk. Region 1388 (S23E67) was numbered early in
the period as it rotated onto the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels for the next three days (28 - 30 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated periods of
minor storm levels on days one and two (28 - 29 December) with
multiple CME arrivals expected. A decrease in activity is expected
on day three (30 December) as CME effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 140 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 002/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 000/000 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 012/018-014/022-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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