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Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3 flare that occurred at 30/2028Z from Region 1364 (S17E60). Growth was observed in Regions 1361 (N18W06) and 1362 (N06E36). A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 29/2312Z. The event was seen in STEREO B COR 2 imagery at 30/0110Z and determined to be a farside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached quiet to active conditions with minor and major storm periods observed at high latitudes. Activity was attributed to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) at approximately 30/0810Z followed by a prolonged period of southward Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (01-03 December). There is still a possibility of coronal hole high speed stream effects from the southern polar extension coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Nov 144
  Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        30 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  008/008-007/008-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active08%08%05%
Minor storm02%02%01%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm16%15%13%
Major-severe storm11%08%07%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-65nT)

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