Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1393 (N17W70) produced
the largest flare; a C1 at 10/0153Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 1391 (N12W25) and
1393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated at approximately 420 -
460 km/s with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (11 January). On days 2 - 3
(12 - 13 January) quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a
chance for active periods as a coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 129 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 004/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 14 September 2024
X4.5 solar flare with a fast coronal mass ejection
Thursday, 12 September 2024
G3 geomagnetic storm watch due to CME passage
Monday, 12 August 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Latest forum messages
AR 3835 17Different colors of aurora 6Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1027AR3834 10Sunspots Backside Monitor Comparison 3
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/22 | M3.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 144.6 -70.9 |
| Last 30 days | 150.5 -61.8 |