Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Nominal C-class flares occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for a M-class flare for the next 3 days (12-14 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be mostly quiet on day 1 (12 January). Conditions are expected to increase for days 2-3 (13-14 January), with possible unsettled and active conditions due to a high speed stream (HSS) from a coronal hole (CH).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 120
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  000/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  003/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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