Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two, low level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours, both of which appeared to
be from Region 1367 which is behind west limb. There was a marked
decrease in activity and background levels after 0900Z as Region
1367s loop tops rotated completely out view. Region 1374 (S17W26)
continues to be the largest group on the disk but was quiet and
stable. A coronal mass ejection/erupting prominence was observed
from the southwest limb at about 0736Z but is not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Very low levels are expected to prevail but there is
still a chance for isolated C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 126 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 124/124/124 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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