Viewing archive of Friday, 18 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1354 (S15E56) showed
gradual intermediate spot growth and produced a C2/Sf flare at
18/1723Z, as well as occasional optical subflares. Region 1346
(S17W17) showed minor spot growth during the period and produced a
C1/Sf flare at 18/1643Z. New Region 1355 (N14E73) rotated into view
and produced a single optical subflare. Multiple CMEs were evident
in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO images, but none were deemed to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (19 - 21 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (19 November)
due to a possible glancing blow from a CME observed on 14 November.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the remainder
of the period (20 - 21 November).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 144 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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