Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1314 (N29W93)
produced a long duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z associated with a CME
off the west limb that is not expected to be geoeffective. A
disappearing filament was observed at approximately 22/0058Z. An
associated CME appears to be Earth-directed but further analysis is
necessary to determine timing as images become available. New Region
1330 (N04E66) was numbered today and is considered a Dso-beta type
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely for the next three days (23-25
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23-25 October).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 164 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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