Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
flares were observed during the period. Old Region 1341 (N08,
L=055), which rotated out of view early in the period, was the
likely source for a C1 x-ray flare at 19/0127Z associated with a
weak Type II radio sweep and a non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1354
(S17E44) showed gradual spot growth in its intermediate portion and
produced a couple C-class flares including a C3 at 19/1955Z, which
was the largest flare of the period. New Region 1356 (N14E81)
rotated into view and was classified as an Hsx with an alpha
magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (20 - 22 November) with a slight chance for an
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period (20 - 22 November).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 140 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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