Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N19W79) produced
several C-class x-ray events over the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels on day 1 (8 February). Activity
should decrease to very low levels on days 2-3 (9-10 February) after
Region 1410 rotates off the west limb of the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes with an
isolated minor storm observed between 07/09-15Z at a high latitude
station in College, Alaska.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (8 February)
as the results of elevated solar wind speeds and intermittent
periods of negative Bz. Unsettled to active levels are again
expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on
days 2-3 (9-10 February).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 107 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 008/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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