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Viewing archive of Monday, 5 March 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. An X1/2b flare occurred at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41). This flare was associated with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about 1340 km/sec. Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The region produced additional M-class flares during the period. New Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z. Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 132
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  012/015-013/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%35%15%
Major-severe storm30%40%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-50nT)
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

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Coronal hole faces Earth

The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity. 

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