Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 February 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11 February).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 097
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%05%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%10%
Minor storm20%20%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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