Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. As Regions 1401
(N16W66) and 1402 (N26W60) approached the west limb, they exhibited
little change over the past 24 hours, as did the remainder of the
disk and limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (26 - 28 January). A chance for
M-class activity exists on 26 - 27 January from Regions 1401 and
1402 before they rotate around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with
isolated high latitude major to severe storm intervals. During the
period, ACE solar wind velocities varied between a high of 625 km/s
at the beginning, and steadily decreased to a low of near 500 km/s
by the end. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
varied between +/- 10 nT through about 25/1000Z and remained weakly
south at -1 to -5 nT through the end of the period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux event was still in progress at the time of
this report. Proton flux levels steadily decayed to end the period
near 100 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (26 January). By
day two (27 January) and through day three (28 January), field
activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods. This increase in activity is due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream expected to move into a
geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event is
expected to remain above event levels through 26 January, falling to
background levels by 27 January.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 126 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 013/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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