Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was one C-class flare
during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 21/1148Z from Region 1422
(N15W24). This region continues to be the largest group on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. ACE data has
shown a steady decline in solar wind speed. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next 36 hours. An increase to
unsettled levels is expected mid-day on 23 February and continuing
through 24 February due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 103 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 006/005-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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