Viewing archive of Monday, 19 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1432 (N22W68) produced
a C1/Sf event at 19/1351Z while developing spots in an area that was
previously plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next two days (20-21 March) until Regions 1432
and 1435 (S26W62) exit the visible disk. Activity is expected to
decrease to very low levels with a chance for C-class activity on
day three (22 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. An isolated
period of active was observed for the 0300-0600Z synoptic period.
The enhanced activity followed what appeared to be the 15 March
transient arrival at the ACE spacecraft around 19/0315Z. Total
field strength rose to 7nT, Bz turned southward to -7nT, wind speeds
reached up to 590 km/s, and temperature and density showed a slight
increase. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 March. Activity
is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels for the rest of the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 102 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
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