Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 March 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class x-ray event during the period, a C3 from Region 1434 (S20W66) at 19/2204Z. The solar disk consists of six spotted regions, all of which were relatively quiet and stable. Two new regions were assigned today: Region 1438 (S15E69) and Region 1439 (N25W79).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for some isolated unsettled periods for the next three days (20-22 March).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 100
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  095/090/085
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  006/007-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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