Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (01-03 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled conditions from
30/21Z until 31/00Z, before decreasing to quiet levels for the
remainder of the day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which
began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu on 28/0205Z,
dropped below the 10 pfu threshold and ended at 31/0635Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (01-02 February), and
quiet to unsettled on day 3 (03 February) due to anticipated CH HSS
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 117 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 004/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 14 September 2024
X4.5 solar flare with a fast coronal mass ejection
Thursday, 12 September 2024
G3 geomagnetic storm watch due to CME passage
Monday, 12 August 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Latest forum messages
STIX Data 1AR 3825 222AR 13831 14Some weird thing on farside seismic signature 14Positive polarity coronal hole influence 14
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/22 | M3.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 144.6 -70.9 |
| Last 30 days | 150.5 -61.8 |