Viewing archive of Friday, 6 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W45) produced a long duration C1/Sf flare that
peaked at 05/2110Z. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial halo
CME at 05/2125Z. Associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps were
also observed with an estimated shock speed for the Type II of 360
km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares expected for the next three days (07-09 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (07 April). Unsettled levels are
expected on days two and three (08-09 April) with a chance for
isolated active levels due to the anticipated arrival of the CME
from Region 1450 and the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
The latest model run shows the CME to be potentially geoeffective
with an estimated speed of 845 km/s and is expected to arrive late
on the 08th/early on the 09th of April.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 097 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 006/005-007/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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