SpaceWeatherLive .com
Real-time auroral and solar activity

Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 July 2012

Solar activity report

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W36) produced an M6/1b at 05/1144Z along with several low-level M-class flares. The region continued to grow slightly in areal coverage and maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513 (N15W52) grew as well but did not produce any further M-class activity since yesterdays report.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days (06-08 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed decreased throughout the period to approximately 475 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (06-07 July) as effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on day three (08 July), with a chance for isolated minor storm periods, due to effects from the CME associated with the M1/2n flare observed at 04/1639Z from Region 1513.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jul 165
  Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        05 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  011/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  009/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  009/008-007/012-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%45%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm15%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%30%55%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

Back to top

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 00:51 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Thunder Bay, ON, Winnipeg, MB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (629.9 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-71nT)

Latest news

Latest forum messages

Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2213Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1660AR4048 114New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 36Filaments and prominences 750
More topics

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

01:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 00:51 UTC

alert

Friday, 4 April 2025
23:30 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:17 UTC

alert

21:03 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 21:49 UTC

13:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 13:07 UTC

alert

12:33 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 13:21 UTC

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2025/04/01M2.5
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/27Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
March 2025134.2 -20.4
April 2025143 +8.8
Last 30 days129.8 -16.3

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X1.21
22001M7.3
32001M4.52
42013M3.28
52004M2.47
DstG
11993-165G3
21968-112G3
31978-109G1
41984-108G2
51989-101G2
*since 1994

Social networks