Viewing archive of Friday, 8 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1494 (S18W33) produced
a C7 flare at 08/0307Z. The flare was accompanied by Type II and
Type IV radio emissions at 08/0305Z and 08/0308Z, respectively. A
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0443Z emerging from the
southern hemisphere. Analysis of LASCO and STEREO COR2 coronagraph
imagery indicated a speed of approximately 380 km/s. A subsequent
model run suggested a glancing blow at earth late on June 12th.
Filament eruptions were observed from the NE limb at 08/1645Z in SDO
304 imagery and at 08/1756Z in LASCO C2. A second eruption near
N10E50 was observed in SDO 304 imagery at 08/1706Z. The first
eruption is not expected to be geoeffective; the second is being
evaluted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days
(09-11 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Data
from the ACE spacecraft suggested the possible arrival of the CME
from 05 June around 08/0800Z. A couple of unsettled periods
followed, but most of the day was quiet. Wind speed at ACE declined
throughout the period and ended the day near 500 km/s. The Bz
component of the IMF was generally neutral to slightly negative for
the first half of the day, and generally positive for the last half.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 June). The CME from 06
June is expected to arrive on day 2 (10 June), bringing unsettled
conditions with a chance for an isolated active period through day 3
(11 June).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | Green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 124
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 006/005-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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