Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 09 2245 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2012
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IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1499 (N16W31) was
the most active region producing two M-class x-ray events. The first
event was an impulsive M1 flare at 09/1132Z and the second was also
an impulsive M1/Sf event which occurred at 09/1645Z. Region 1499
also produced several C1 events at 09/0308Z, 1032Z, and 1527Z.
Region 1499 was classified as a Cao type group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1504 (S18E67) was numbered
today and classified as a Cao type group with beta magnetic
characteristics. New Region 1505(S09E63) was also numbered today and
classified as a Axx type group with alpha magnetic characteristics.
There were no earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with an increasing chance for occasional M-class activity for
the next three days (10-12 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. A weak disturbance
was observed on both ground and GOES magnetometers at 09/1841Z
leading to the single unsettled period of the day. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline and ended the period near
440 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magentic field
remained mostly neutral or positive. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12
June) with the anticiapted glancing blows from CMEs on 06 June and
08 June and the arrival on 11 June of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M | 45% | 50% | 55% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | Green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 128
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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