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Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 May 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1476 (N09W33) continues to be the most dominant region on the disk with an area of 840 millionths and is magnetically classified as beta-gamma-delta. However, Region 1476 is currently in a decay phase and only producing C-class x-ray events. Region 1479 (N15E40) was split into two sunspot groups after magnetogram analysis, with the leader group retaining the Region 1479 number, and the trailer group being numbered Region 1482 (N14E51). Three new regions were also numbered today, Region 1481 (S10E61), Region 1483 (S27E51) and Region 1484 (N10E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (14 - 16 May) as Region 1476 continues to rotate towards the west limb of the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes. Measurements, by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the waning effects of the latest coronal hole high speed stream, as solar wind speeds decreased from 600 km/s to around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods on day one (14 May), as a CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 12 May, is forecasted to become geoeffective. Most of the mass of this CME event is expected to miss Earth, thus quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of active levels, are also expected on day two (15 May). As effects of the CME wane, a return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three (16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 131
  Predicted   14 May-16 May  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        13 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  007/010-014/012-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%10%
Minor storm05%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%20%
Minor storm15%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%10%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth

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