Viewing archive of Friday, 6 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S18W50)
continued to produce M-class flares, the largest an M2/Sn at
06/0140Z. The region continued to grow to 900 millionths and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W65) showed slight decay and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(07-09 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
conditions on days one and two (07-08 July) due to combined effects
from the CMEs observed on 03 and 04 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (09 July) as effects from the
CMEs subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 158 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 015/022-017/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 45% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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