Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1532 (S18W28) and 1535 (N17E24) produced C-class flares; the largest was a C1 at 0456Z. An additional C1 event was observed at 1310Z off the west limb (near old Region 1526). A coronal mass ejection was associated with the behind-limb event, but is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1539 (S22E60) was numbered and is a small bipolar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels. A transient from the 28 July CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 02/0954Z, producing active to minor storm activity levels from 02/1200Z through the end of the analysis period. Bz was continuously negative multiple times throughout the period, peaking at -12.3 nT at 02/1220Z. Solar wind showed a slight increase to 496 km/s at 02/1938Z and has since subsided.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 August) followed by mostly quiet levels on days 2 and 3 (04-05 August).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Aug 135
  Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        02 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Aug  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

All times in UTC

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