Viewing archive of Friday, 3 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1538 (S22E28), 1539 (S23E45), and 1540 (S27E60) produced C-class flares; the largest was a C2/1f from Region 1539 at 0600Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity: 622 km/s). A slow CME was observed off the southeast limb at 0624Z but is not expected to be geoeffective. Two new regions were numbered: Region 1540 (S27E60), a small bipolar group and Region 1541 (S15E64), a small unipolar spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet for the next three days (August 04-06).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Aug 140
  Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        03 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  016/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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