Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1520 (S16E19) produced three M-class events during the period, the largest an M2/1f flare at 10/0627Z. The region grew slightly in area and spot count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Other activity included a C4/1f flare at 10/0834Z from Region 1519 (S16W04) and a C8/Sf flare at 10/1345Z from Region 1521 (S22E05). Region 1521 indicated some elongation along its E/W axis while Region 1519 decayed from a B-type group to a single H spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three days (11 - 13 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm intervals from 09/2100 - 2400Z. This activity was most likely a result of residual CME effects from recent flare activity from old Regions 1513 (N17, L=220) and 1515 (S17, L=206). ACE solar data indicated wind velocities steadily increased through the period from 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT while interplanetary field strength ranged between 6 to 12 nT. At about 09/2100Z, the phi angle switched from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive (away) orientation. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (11 - 13 July).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jul 173
  Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        10 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  029/038
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jul  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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