Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Regions 1519 (S15W18), 1520
(S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) all produced C-class flares during the
period. The largest event was a C9/1n at 11/0831Z from Region 1521.
Region 1520 indicated consolidation and rotation in its trailer
spots while developing additional sheer. The region remained a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. During the past 24
hours, Region 1521 elongated along its E/W axis and developed a
gamma configuration in its trailer spots. The region is now
classified as an E-type beta-gamma group. A 20 degree long filament
erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk at about 11/0930Z. The
eruption occurred along a channel centered near N22E22. Limited
LASCO imagery hinted at a possible CME that lifted off the NNE limb
likely associated with the filament eruption. Further analysis of
this CME is ongoing.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three
days (12 - 14 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated high latitude minor to major storm intervals from
11/0600 - 1200Z. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities remained
steady at about 500 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (12 - 14 July).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 162
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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