Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1542 (S14E62) was the
most active region on the solar disk. This region produced seven
C-class x-ray flares, the largest of which was a C4/Sf flare that
occurred at 07/1330Z. A partial filament eruption occurred at
approximately 06/1830Z. An associated CME was visible on LASCO C2
imagery at 06/1900Z off the west limb, however no significant
impacts are expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period at high latitudes from 07/0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance of isolated
active to minor storm intervals on days one and two (08 and 09 Aug).
This increase in activity is expected sometime between mid-day on
08 Aug to early on 09 Aug due to the arrival of the 04 Aug CME. Day
three (10 Aug) is expected to return to quiet levels as the effects
of the CME subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 129 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 007/010-011/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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