Viewing archive of Monday, 3 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N03W33 -
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) and 1564 (S16E26 - Esi/beta-gamma) each
produced occasional C-class flares. Region 1560 increased in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration with a delta
evident in its interior spots. Region 1564 was in a gradual growth
phase during the period and increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma configuration. Region 1553 (S21W82 - Dso/beta) produced
occasional optical subflares as it neared the west limb. New Region
1566 (N24E76 - Hax/alpha) was numbered. There were no Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (04 - 06 September) with a chance for isolated M-
class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels with a brief period of severe storm levels detected at high
latitudes. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at
03/1123Z indicating the arrival of the Halo CME observed on 31
August. This was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse at
03/1214Z (28 nT, Boulder USGS Magnetometer). Field activity
increased to major storm levels during 03/1200 - 1500Z following the
sudden impulse, then decreased to active levels for the rest of the
period, with minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit
that began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum of 60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and
was in progress as the period ended.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (04 September)
with a chance for minor storm levels as CME effects wind down. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (05 - 06
September) with a chance for active levels due to arrival of
Earth-directed CMEs observed on 02 September along with a
co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). The CH HSS is expected to commence on day 3. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to end on day 1.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 50% | 30% | 10% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 142
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 021/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 014/015-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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