Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C5/SN flare at 1810Z from Region 1560 (N03W17). This region remains the largest and most magnetically complex with a beta-gamma configuration. Two potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed with estimated speeds of 570 and 530 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep occurred at 0435Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of 60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and is currently above threshold at the time of this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME, and high latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels. On days 2 and 3 (4-5 September), activity is expected to decrease to mostly unsettled conditions with continuing CME effects. The two CMEs observed today along with a coronal hole high speed stream are expected to arrive late on day 3 (5 September).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton75%40%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 142
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  020/030-014/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm40%20%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm40%10%20%

All times in UTC

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