Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C5/SN flare at 1810Z from Region 1560 (N03W17). This region remains the largest and most magnetically complex with a beta-gamma configuration. Two potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed with estimated speeds of 570 and 530 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep occurred at 0435Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of 60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and is currently above threshold at the time of this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME, and high latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels. On days 2 and 3 (4-5 September), activity is expected to decrease to mostly unsettled conditions with continuing CME effects. The two CMEs observed today along with a coronal hole high speed stream are expected to arrive late on day 3 (5 September).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton75%40%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 142
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  020/030-014/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm40%20%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm40%10%20%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/23M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024144.7 -21.7
Last 30 days158.6 +10.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X3.4
22000X2.87
32000X2.71
41998X1.54
51999M4.33
DstG
12001-221G4
21982-197G3
31986-86G2
41981-66
51991-65
*since 1994

Social networks