SpaceWeatherLive .com
Real-time auroral and solar activity

Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 September 2012

Solar activity report

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Numerous weak C-class events were observed during the past 24 hours, mostly from Regions 1575 (N07W73) and 1577 (N09W54). New Region 1583 (N13W75) emerged on the disk as a simple bipolar group. No significant changes were observed from the remainder of the disk and limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days of the forecast period (30 September - 02 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 325 km/s to near 275 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. At about 29/0100Z, a solar sector boundary crossing from a negative (toward) to a positive (away) orientation was observed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet levels through about midday on day one (30 September). By late on day one, active levels with a chance for minor to major storm periods are expected due to the arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed early on 28 September. On day two (01 October), continued minor to major storm conditions are expected early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods as effects from the CME wane. Predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (02 October).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Sep 136
  Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        29 Sep 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Sep  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  018/035-018/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%10%
Minor storm25%30%05%
Major-severe storm05%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm60%70%20%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

Back to top

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:35 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Thunder Bay, ON
Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.43nT), the direction is moderately South (-10.75nT).

Latest news

Latest forum messages

CMEs from March 16-17 and small CH 225AR4028 17Aurora- with positive BZ and negative BY 39Filaments and prominences 738Changelog/Featurelog 167
More topics

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

00:18 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 101GW at 01:06 UTC

Friday, 21 March 2025
23:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:30 UTC

alert

23:12 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 77GW at 00:01 UTC

19:39 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 53GW at 20:34 UTC

19:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 18:55 UTC

alert

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/02/23X2.0
Last M-flare2025/03/21M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/14Kp6- (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2025154.6 +17.6
March 2025138.4 -16.2
Last 30 days140.3 -10.9

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X1.56
22024M4.3
32000M2.86
42002M2.37
52001M2.28
DstG
11990-104G1
21989-96G2
31958-85G2
41979-81G3
51973-57G2
*since 1994

Social networks