Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24 hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for continued M-class activity for the next two days (01 - 02 October). A return to low levels is expected on day three (03 October), as the active region cluster, located in the northwest quadrant, rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from 27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft, indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15 nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with minor storm periods possible on day one (01 October), as effects of todays CME continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (02 October) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on day three (03 October).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M10%10%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 136
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  011/015-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%10%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm50%20%10%

All times in UTC

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