Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar
x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24
hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar
disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk
remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New
Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the
time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for continued M-class activity for
the next two days (01 - 02 October). A return to low levels is
expected on day three (03 October), as the active region cluster,
located in the northwest quadrant, rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from
27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft,
indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15
nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached
Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this
initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The
total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of
negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind
speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with minor storm periods
possible on day one (01 October), as effects of todays CME
continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (02
October) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (03 October).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 136 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 011/015-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Strong far side CME 325Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 8Filaments and prominences 595Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1351Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1747
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |