Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 October 2012

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Three low-level C-class flares were observed from behind the west limb, likely from old Region 1594 (S27, L=200). Region 1598 (S11W10), a Dkc/Beta-Delta spot group, remained the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk and produced a B9/Sf flare at 27/1235Z. Region 1596 (N08W48), a Dao/Beta-Gamma spot group, has shown signs of penumbral decay, mainly in its trailer spots. The remaining two spot groups were stable and unremarkable. A CME was observed in STEREO Ahead COR 2 imagery at 27/1824Z. Further analysis will be performed to determine its geo-effectiveness as data becomes available.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares for the next three days (28-30 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained steady at approximately 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field had minor deflections of +/- 5 nT while the total field remained steady at 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the next three days (28-30 October).

III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct

Class M	15%	10%	10%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       27 Oct 122
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  120/115/110
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	05%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 22:46 UTC

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (596.1 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.03nT), the direction is North (8.77nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-72nT)

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