Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S14E14 - Esi/beta-gamma) was the most active region, producing occasional low-level C-class flares. It increased in spot count and area during the first half of the period, but showed gradual spot and penumbral decay during the latter half of the period. Region 1560 (N04W47 - Eai/beta-gamma-delta) showed a slight decrease in spots and area, but maintained a delta in its interior spots. No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted regions and no new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity was observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (05 - 07 September) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with major storm periods detected at high latitudes, all due to residual CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum of 59 pfu at 02/0850Z, and ended at 04/0625Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (05 - 06 September) with a chance for active levels. This is due to the arrival of CMEs observed on 02 September along with a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The CMEs are expected to arrive around midday on day 1. The CH HSS is expected to commence on day 2. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (07 September) as CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 138
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  023/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%25%
Major-severe storm30%25%20%

All times in UTC

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