Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S14E01 -
Esi/beta-gamma) produced occasional C-class flares including a C6 at
05/0347Z and a C7/Sn at 05/0806Z, neither of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 1564 showed gradual spot and
penumbral decay during the period, but retained a beta-gamma
configuration due to polarity mixing in the vicinity of its
intermediate spots. Region 1560 (N04W58 - Eai/beta-gamma-delta)
showed minor spot loss in its trailer portion during the period. It
retained a delta within its intermediate spots, but the delta
appeared to be dissipating. The remaining spotted region were
unremarkable. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME
activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (06 - 08 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare during days 1 - 2.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels
with a brief period of severe storm levels at high latitudes. An
interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 04/2203Z
indicating the arrival of the CMEs observed on 02 September. Field
activity increased to major storm levels during 05/0000 - 0300Z
following the shock, then decreased to minor storm levels during
05/0300 - 0600Z. A further decrease to active levels occurred during
05/0300 - 0900Z. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred during the rest
of the period with active to minor storm levels detected at high
latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (06 -
08 September) with a chance for active levels on day 1 due to
possible weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
Class M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 133
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/010-007/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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