Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. New Region 1544 (S30W06) was the most active region on the solar disk, producing three C-class flares. However, Region 1542 (S14E37) produced the largest flare of the period, a C8 x-ray flare, at 09/1147Z. Further analysis will be conducted to determine the geoeffectiveness of any CMEs associated with this flare as more data becomes available.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period from 09/0000Z-0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet on day one (10 Aug). Days two and three (Aug 11-12) are expected to be quiet to unsettled due to the effects of the interaction between the two filaments that lifted off the solar disk on 07 and 08 Aug and the corotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Aug 131
  Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        09 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  012/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  006/005-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%25%

All times in UTC

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