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Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 July 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Slight growth was observed in Region 1526 (S17W00). The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. A relatively slow moving CME (approximate plane-of-sky speed of 350 km/s) was observed off the southern limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0236Z. Correlations with STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated ejecta movement was slightly south of the ecliptic plane with a possible Earth-directed component. This CME was likely the result of a small filament eruption just south of central disk observed in H-alpha imagery at approximately 24/2235Z. A preliminary WSA ENLIL model run of the event indicated a weak impact early on 29 July.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline from approximately 500 km/s to 440 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit continued to be enhanced around 8 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 - 2 (26 - 27 July). By mid to late on day 3 (28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position resulting in unsettled to active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jul 105
  Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        25 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%30%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Nuuk
Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Winnipeg, MB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (680.5 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-53nT)

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