Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. New Region 1530 (S19E68) was responsible for multiple low level C-class flares. The largest was a C4/Sf at 24/1905Z. SDO and STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery show brightening behind the northeast and southeast limbs, suggesting the presence of more active regions yet to rotate onto the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated minor storm period at high latitudes from 24/1200 - 1500Z. Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in solar wind speed from approximately 450 km/s to 580 km/s by 24/0830Z before decreasing to 500 km/s by the end of the period. This is likely due to the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and continued to fluctuate near the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active periods on day 1 (25 July) due to persistent effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days 2 - 3 (26 - 27 July).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton30%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jul 102
  Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        24 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jul  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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