Viewing archive of Monday, 20 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 1543 (N21, L=021)
produced the largest event of the period, a B8 flare at 19/2315Z,
off of the northwest limb. Region 1548 (N20E47) also produced a low
level B-class flare. The remaining spotted regions were stable and
quiet. A full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 19/1918Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed
of 605 km/s. STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be
a back-sided event and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next
three days (21-23 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 19/2100Z to 20/0000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on days 1-2 (21-22 August) due to continued effects from
the coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (23 August) conditions
are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 096 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
OuluArkhangelsk, Vorkuta
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