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Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 June 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 1513 (N17E45) produced an impulsive M2/1b flare at 28/1612Z along with occasional B- and C-class flares including a long-duration C2/Sf at 28/1948Z. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 1512 (S15W02) maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but showed little change during the period. This region produced occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (29 June - 01 July) with a chance for another M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during days 2 - 3 (30 June - 01 July) with a chance for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jun 120
  Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jun  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%40%35%

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.8nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-53nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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