Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 1582 (S12E68)
rotated onto the southeast limb and produced the only C-flare of the
period; a long duration C1 at 26/1240Z. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 320 km/s to 450 km/s
while the total magnetic field increased from 5 nT to 9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a slight chance for unsettled
periods during the forecast period (27 - 29 September). There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 139 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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