Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
period was a C4 flare at 25/1753Z from Region 1580 (N17E67). New
Region 1581 (N22E03) was numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions. There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from active regions
rotating around the southeast limb.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 140 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 004/005-004/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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