Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E29) has produced numerous C-class events throughout the period, and remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although slight decay was noted in Region 1598s trailer spots, it still maintains a Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1596 (N08W08) is moderately sized with some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares during the period. The other regions either remained stable or were decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with occasional M-class events, and a slight chance for an isolated X-class event for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct) with Region 1598 the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased slowly throughout the period from around 370 km/s to around 340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/- 2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 136
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  009/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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