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Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 October 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E18) produced a few low-level C-class events throughout the period, and remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although Region 1598 continues to decay, a weak Delta magnetic configuration was still observed in the regions trailer spots. Region 1596 (N07W21) is a moderately sized region with some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares during the period. The other regions on the disk were either stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct) with Region 1598 the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, was predominately steady around 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Class M30%20%10%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Oct 130
  Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:35 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (525.5 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (21.73nT), the direction is moderately South (-10.37nT).

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