Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few B-class events; the largest was a B7 at 1505Z from Region
1598 (S11W77). New Region 1603 (N08W18) emerged on the disk and is a
small, simple bipolar region. All the other regions on the disk were
small and void of activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours, with some isolated storm periods at high latitudes.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed continued
driving from a coronal mass ejection; the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component turned southward at about 0346Z and attained
sustained maximum levels of about -12 nT for several hours. By the
end of the period Bz had weakened to values around -5 nT. Initial
solar wind velocity peaked at about 370 km/s and had declined to
about 310 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the first day (02 Nov) as the
current disturbance subsides. Quiet levels are expected to prevail
for the second and third days (03-04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 098 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 014/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 007/010-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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