Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted of a few B-class events; the largest was a B7 at 1505Z from Region 1598 (S11W77). New Region 1603 (N08W18) emerged on the disk and is a small, simple bipolar region. All the other regions on the disk were small and void of activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours, with some isolated storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed continued driving from a coronal mass ejection; the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component turned southward at about 0346Z and attained sustained maximum levels of about -12 nT for several hours. By the end of the period Bz had weakened to values around -5 nT. Initial solar wind velocity peaked at about 370 km/s and had declined to about 310 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the first day (02 Nov) as the current disturbance subsides. Quiet levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days (03-04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 098
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  014/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  007/010-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm25%10%05%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/23M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024106.6 -45.9
Last 30 days116.1 -41.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12015M6.75
21998M3.34
32013M2.36
42013M1.97
52001M1.69
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks