Viewing archive of Friday, 5 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A long duration (7.5 hours) B7 x-ray event was observed at 05/0730Z. Post eruption loop structures were observed in GOES SXI imagery beginning at approximately 05/0328Z in the vicinity of Region 1584 (S22W40) shortly after the beginning of the B7 flare at 05/0317Z. A partial halo CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 05/0730Z and STEREO A COR2 imagery at 05/0409Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed at 590 km/s. WSA-ENLIL model indicates this Earth-directed CME to become geoeffective late on 08 October.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with the chance for a C-class flare during the forecast period (06-08 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (06-07 October). Late on day 3 (08 October), todays CME is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 106
  Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  006/005-006/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%30%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%20%

All times in UTC

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